Who Does Las Vegas Favor To Win Super Bowl
Every Friday while the NFL is in action, ESPN Chalk will ask some of Las Vegas' top oddsmakers where the action has come in during the week. Here is the latest installment, covering the final game of the 2015-16 NFL season (and one of the biggest sports betting days of the year): Super Bowl 50.
Same fight different point of veiw same fight different point of veiw.
- Author Chris Lang is an Englishman living in Seattle who became a convert from British soccer and cricket to real football and baseball when he first went to watch the Seattle Seahawks and the Seattle.
- Some of the top bookmakers in Las Vegas reveal the betting action, line movements and all of the most popular prop bets in the lead-up to Super Bowl 50.
1. Where do you have the Super Bowl 50 line and total at right now, and where do you think they will go?
Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading, William Hill: We currently have the line at Carolina -5.5 with the total at 45. The line will either stay right at -5.5 or move back up to -6. At this point, 76 percent of the point-spread tickets and 91 percent of the total dollars wagered on the point spread are on Carolina.
John Avello, race and sports operations director at Wynn and Encore: We are currently at Panthers -5.5 and the total is 45. Throughout the weekend, the betting line may hover between 4.5 and 5.5; the total shouldn't move too much with the sophisticated action on the under and the general public on the over.
Jay Kornegay, head oddsmaker at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook: Westgate's current line is Panthers -5.5. The Panthers money line is -220, the Broncos money line is +190 and the total is 45.
2. Is there any chance the line gets pushed to Carolina -7 at some point before kickoff?
Bogdanovich: No chance that the line moves all the way up to Carolina -7. The line will be steady right at the -5.5 or -6 range as it gets closer to kickoff.
Avello: I'm not sure this line even makes it to -6.5, so reaching -7 is quite a stretch.
Kornegay: It is highly unlikely that Westgate's game line will reach -7, even with the expectation that we will continue to see more public money come in on the Panthers up until kickoff.
3. What are a few of the prop bets that have gotten the most action?
Bogdanovich: Everyone seems to take be taking an interest in the MVP prop, and it is really great to see, as this is the first year we have had the MVP prop on the board. A few others at the moment: total field goals in the game, total interceptions in the game, whether there will be a safety and the majority of the point-spread proposition lines for Carolina. The coin-toss prop is also very popular.
Avello: Two props that have received great action: quarterback combo -- total combined TD passes, interceptions and sacks by/on both Cam Newton and Peyton Manning (over or under 11.5), and whether Brock Osweiler will take a snap from center.
Kornegay: Popular props include the following:
Will there be a safety in SB 50? 14-1 ticket count in favor of yes
Will Super Bowl 50 go to overtime? 5-1 ticket count in favor of yes
Will Greg Olsen score a touchdown? 30-1 ticket count in favor of yes
Will Ted Ginn Jr. have a rushing attempt? 42-1 ticket count in favor of yes
We also have quite a bit of action on the player to score the first touchdown of SB 50, with Newton and Olsen leading in ticket count at odds of 7-1 on each of them.
4. Do you have more future bet liability on Denver or Carolina?
Bogdanovich: We have more future liability on Denver, that's for sure. Both teams have had a lot of future action, but we win more with Carolina than we would with Denver.
Avello: I'm in good shape with both teams in the future book, but I do a little better with the Panthers winning.
Kornegay: As it stands now, we will fare better if the Panthers win -- but we will also do OK if the Broncos win the game.
5. Which player has taken the most action to win Super Bowl MVP? Any long shots?
Bogdanovich: Most of the action so far is on Newton to win the MVP on Sunday. Bettors think Cam (-175) will run away with the MVP award, with 40 percent of total dollars wagered coming in on him to win. Other players who are taking some good action include Manning (3-1, 8 percent of the money), Aqib Talib (30-1, 6 percent of the money) and Luke Kuechly (15-1, 4 percent of the money).
Long-shot odds for Carolina players: Both Ed Dickson and Fozzy Whittaker currently sit at 150-1 to win the MVP. On the Broncos side, Andre Caldwell, Vernon Davis, and Bennie Fowler are some of a handful of players currently at 100-1.
Avello: A couple of higher-priced MVP selections whom the bettors have taken a shot with are Brandon McManus (100-1), Owen Daniels (100-1) and a few defensive guys -- Danny Trevathan (150-1), Brandon Marshall (200-1) and T.J. Ward (200-1).
Kornegay: We have the most tickets written on Von Miller at 25-1 odds to win the MVP award, followed by Kuechly at 15-1 and Ginn at 40-1. Talib has also received some support at 100-1.
6. What is the biggest bet you've taken, and what was it on?
Bogdanovich: William Hill's largest bet taken on the game so far is a $623,142.25 money-line wager (-190) on the Carolina Panthers. Bettor stands to win $327,969.60 if Carolina wins. The bet was placed at one of William Hill's Las Vegas locations on Jan. 25, 2016.
Avello: We've taken quite a few six-figure bets (half low-range and half midrange) -- with 75 percent of them on the Panthers -- and too many five-figure wagers to mention.
Kornegay: We've had a few five-figure bets on both sides.
The VegasInsider.com Super Bowl 55 Betting Update is your one-stop resource for the NFL finale between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The two teams will meet in the NFL finale at Raymond James Stadium from Tampa, Florida on Sunday, Feb. 7, 2021.
Vegas Insider Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, will provide the latest betting updates from Las Vegas and the state of Nevada while the VI staff will be offering reports, big ticket wagers and betting trend comparisons from legal sportsbooks throughout the United States.
Super Bowl 55 - Most Viewed Stories
Also, VI will be providing you with historical data, trends and angles to watch for Super Bowl 55 as you prepare for the NFL playoff matchup between the Chiefs and Buccaneers.
For up to the minute Super Bowl 55 betting releases, be sure to follow both @TwitVI and @MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
Update - Saturday, Feb. 6, 2021 - 6:45 p.m. ET
by VI Staff
The latest betting trends are showing a fairly even split on the Super Bowl 55 matchup with less than 24 hours to kickoff.
Our Betting Preview on the Chiefs vs. Buccaneers is up and there are plenty of Super Bowl 55 predictions to help you with all of your wagering opportunities.
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Bettors looking for advice can check out our stable of expert picks or we've got plenty of free content to help you with your handicapping.
SB55 Picks Super Bowl Predictions Super Bowl 55 Props
Update - Friday, Feb. 5, 2021 - 7:45 p.m. ET
by Micah Roberts
BetMGM makes a move
The big news on Friday morning was BetMGM dropping from the Chiefs from -3.5 -105 to -3 -115 as more Buccaneers money started flowing in than had been seen with large money.
“We started to see quite a bit a lot of sharp players wanting to take the +3.5 (-115) so I had to move it,” said BetMGM VP of trading Jason Scott.
It was BetMGM’s first move since last Sunday after the conference championship games.
Station Casinos and Atlantis-Reno are the only 3.5’s in Nevada so taking the +3.5 -120 still holds value. If you want to buy the half point at most books they charge .25 extra cents so if you want it you know where to go.
Atlantis-Reno sportsbook director Marc Nelson said they’re still pretty even at 3.5 so no reason for him to move yet. Station’s sportsbook director Jason McCormick said they’re still even at the number as well. No need to get cute on booking the biggest game of the year. Follow the money from here on out.
The South Point always makes a splash with Super Bowl gifts on the betting line because owner Michael Gaughan has always done it for marketing, all the way back to his Barbary Coast days when his sportsbook ran by Jimmy Vaccaro offered the first prop -- “Will William ‘The Refrigerator’ Perry score a touchdown” against the Patriots in the 1986 Super Bowl. He did score, the books lost a ton, but gained so much notoriety nationally for it. It was the berth of the modern-day prop as we know it.
In 1992, Gaughan ran the Super Bowl promo at all his Coast Casinos offering the Bills +7.5 or the Redskins -6.5 when everyone else was -7. Why would you bet anywhere else no matter what side you liked? That was the idea. Washington won 37-24. The book cleaned up.
Chris Andrews is in charge of the South Point book now for Gaughan and has been steady at Chiefs -3 -110 which is the best number in Las Vegas. They also chopped the money-line down to a .10 cent split to -160/+150. The South Point has bumped up its total to 56.5 while most others are still at 56.
Update - Thursday, Feb. 4, 2021 - 5:15 p.m. ET
by Micah Roberts
Chiefs getting attention
It looks as though most of the Buccaneers +3.5 numbers are slowly dissipating in Nevada with only BetMGM (+3.5 -115), Station Casinos (+3.5 -120), and Atlantis-Reno (+3.5 -120) holding firm while most of the state has the Chiefs -3 (-120) with of course the exception being the South Point at -3 flat, the best Chiefs number in the world.
Traffic is less in the sportsbooks during the pandemic, but business is still booming over the phones like never before, such as the $2.3 million bet (Bucs +3.5 -115) last week on the BetMGM app from their regular big bettor. They took another big yesterday.
“We’re starting to see more Kansas City bets,” said BetMGM VP of trading Jason Scott. “We’re seeing a 60-40 split in favor of KC as of yesterday.”
The idea of taking $2.3 million on the Bucs and still being lopsided on the Chiefs side is an unbelievable feat, but it’s so 2021 at the same time. Their handle has been huge.
“We had one customer put $500,000 on the Chiefs and he’s indicated he might come back for more,” Scott said.
The perfect customer. He doesn’t care about the number and he’s never heard of the South Point where he can lay -3 flat or -3 (-120) almost anywhere else.
BetMGM’s handle has been through the roof so far bringing up the notion that Nevada has a chance in these final few days to possibly set a Nevada Super Bowl record surpassing $158 million.
“If we look at the same day of the week compared to last year, the handle is up 500% but we’re in six extra states,” Scott said. “The foot traffic in Nevada is the known unknown. Will we see the plethora of six-figure bets we saw on Sunday last year or has the virus killed the travel?”
The expected rush figures to be less because of the state mandates allowing only 25% of capacity into the casino and the traditional Super Bowl parties that everyone loved will be held to only 50 people per room. But bettors gotta bet, and they’ll find their way to the books somehow.
Up north in Reno, the Atlantis has no thoughts of moving off Chiefs -3.5 EVEN.
“We’re at 60-40% on the Chiefs in ticket counts and 70-30% on the Chiefs with cash wagered and don’t expect any move in the near future,” said Atlantis sportsbook director Marc Nelson. “The only thing we’ve moved is the money-line dropping down to -160.”
The underdog money-line is always bet the most in the Super Bowl, especially with novices who just want to have a rooting interest in what is likely their only bet of the year.
“How much do I win if I bet the Chiefs to win, I don’t understand points,” a nice lady will ask the ticket writer.
“If you bet $16 for the Chiefs to win, no points, you’ll win $10,” the writer would say.
“Well that doesn’t sound very good, how about if I bet the Buccaneers,” she says.
“If the Bucs win you get $14 back on a $10 bet.”
“Yes, give me the Buccaneers then for $10.”
That’s how it happens, and it’s a common occurrence on most Super Bowl weekends. But that type of transaction figures to be limited with fewer people willing to travel.
That’s why the bookmakers dream for the Super Bowl is the favorite not covering the spread but not the underdog winning. They scoop up all the chips on both sides. The last time it happened was the Steelers (-7) beating the Cardinals, 27-23 in 2009.
My favorite moment booking the Super Bowl was in 2005 when the Patriots (-7) beat the Eagles 24-21, the one when Philadelphia wide receiver Terrell Owens played his tail off with a broken leg and quarterback Donovan McNabb threw up in the fourth quarter. The game also stayed 'under' the total of 46.5.
Favorite doesn’t cover, 'dog doesn’t win, and it stays 'under'. We cleaned up and had a big part of the state’s $15.4 million win which was then a record until the Seahawks 43-8 win over the Broncos in 2014 won $19.6 million for the state which is still the record. But the 17% win in 2005 is still the best win percentage.
Update - Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2021 - 7:30 p.m. ET
Who Does Las Vegas Favor To Win Super Bowl
per PointsBet
PointsBet ready for SB55
PointsBet continues to be at the top of the leaderboard in Super Bowl bet types available, with 620 different markets now live, equating to roughly 3,100 total outcomes.
Point-Spread
After Kansas City initially opened as 3.5-point favorites (-105), we saw a quick dip to the key number of KC -3 on Monday, where the line has remained since.
Currently, we have significantly more action on the Chiefs on the spread. Since yesterday, we have seen a slight dip on bet count and handle on Kansas City, now with 77% of spread bets and 91% of spread handle on the Chiefs to repeat as Super Bowl Champions.
Total
The total opened Sunday night at 57.5 (-115/-105) – we have since seen a dip to 56 where it has held steady.
Very slight adjustment on bet count and handle since yesterday, now with 79% of bets and 80% of money wagered on the OVER.
Moneyline
On the ML, we opened at KC -186 and TB +155. Since the initial dip with the spread falling to 3 from 3.5, we’ve since seen ML adjust to KC -170 and TB +145 and has held there for several days.
Unlike the spread, Moneyline bettors are liking Tampa Bay, with 56% of bets and 58% of the handle on the Buccaneers to win outright (small bump on handle since yesterday).
Best Result for Book
As of Wednesday Feb. 3, due to nearly 80% of spread bets and over 90% of spread handle being on Kansas City, but more moneyline bets/handle on Tampa Bay, the best result for the book would be a Chiefs victory by less than 3 points.
On the total, the book is heavily cheering for UNDER 56 points scored.
Super Bowl 55 Prop Moves
Sharp Action/Notable Line Movements
- Longest Punt OVER 56.5 Yards (Bet at +100, now at -115)
- Longest Successful FG Distance UNDER 47.5 (Bet at -115, now at -130)
- Tampa Bay Total Field Goal Attempts OVER 0.5 (Bet at -130, now out to -150)
- Ryan Succop To Miss A Field Goal (Bet at +500, now at +400)
- Shortest Field Goal Distance UNDER 27.5 (Bet at -115, now at -130)
Notable Bets at PointsBet
- Yesterday, we had a client wager $10,000 that the opening kickoff would not be returned for a TD. Would win $200.
- On Monday, a client wagered $75,000 on KC -3 (-120). Would win $62,500.
- Late last week, we took a $2,500 bet on heads (-102 odds). Would win $2,450.98.
Miscellaneous Super Bowl 55 ACtion
Shaquil Barrett continues to be a big liability for MVP. He currently sits as the fifth-most bet player (now up to 9% of bet count) to win MVP, and sits at +6600 odds.
Update - Monday, Feb. 2, 2021 - 5:45 p.m. ET
by Micah Roberts
Bucs money starting to show
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Super Bowl 55 with the Chiefs -3.5-flat before Kansas City's AFC Championship game win was over and within an hour they had enough Bucs money to move to -3 -120, and they’ve been there ever since in what has been a strange first week of Super Bowl betting in Las Vegas.
“We’re getting more action on the Bucs spread so far, but we have more tickets bet on the Chiefs,” said SuperBook VP of risk management Jeff Sherman. “Our larger bets have been on the Bucs with the largest being $80,000 from someone who brought to +3.5 laying -135. We’ve seen about 75% of the cash on the spread so far be on Tampa Bay, and a 6-to-1 cash ratio on the Bucs money-line which we just dropped from -170/+150 down to -165/+145.”
“For us to move to 3-flat it’s going to take a lot,” Sherman said. “And there’s no chance we’ll be at -2.5.”
To say “no chance” is a big deal at this stage of betting the Super Bowl because the public usually comes in from out of town loaded with cash and they decide what the spread will be, but things are different with the pandemic hovering.
“It’s definitely different and we don’t know what to expect as our book is allowed only 25% of capacity with the seats all spaced out and we’ll also have three separate viewing areas with 50 people each allowed as well as the bars,” Sherman said.
The Westgate security team will be handling the people count. If someone leaves, they’ll allow a new person to come in. Nevada Gaming will be in charge of enforcing the state rules and will be monitoring throughout. No casino wants a citation with a big fine attached. No more standing room only packing the room’s open spaces and aisles, part of the very reason that watching with a big crowd was so fun.
And is it possible that no final rush the way we know it will happen? Maybe people just stay home and watch it. The beer and food are cheaper at home, and also less of a chance to catch COVID-19. Maybe the rush comes from the phones, or maybe Californians have to continue to bet illegally with their bookie rather than drive to Las Vegas. It’s hard to tell what the overall effect will be, but we can all assume the Vegas Super Bowl vibe will definitely be altered.
Props on the Move
The best way to offset possibly getting sided in this Super Bowl -- push with favorite -3, lose with dog +3.5 -- if it lands 3 is to offset the action with props, and the crew at the Superbook have been doing better than anyone for almost two decades. The last few seasons they’ve seen their prop action equal the amount bet on the game itself (spread, total, money-line) but Sherman says it’s even higher this season and they’ve had a couple of props run one way.
“The total yardage of all field goals made combined has gone from 112 to 119.5, and total kickoff returns combined from both teams was bet from 3.5 under -190 to -130, and will Mecole Hardman score a TD has dropped from 4-to-1 to +330, and I probably should drop it lower,” Sherman said as he was assessing the liability.
My favorite prop as a bookmaker was always the first player to score because it usually was our first big win of the day we posted unless it was Chicago Bears standout Devin Hester returning a kick for a 92-yard TD to open the game paying out 35/1 odds which everyone seemed to have because the rookie Hester had 6 returns for a TD during the 2006 season.
“We have the most cash and tickets bet on (Patrick) Mahomes to score the first TD and have dropped him from 16-to-1 down to 14-to-1,” Sherman said. “Another index prop like that is player to win MVP and our biggest risk so far is Tyrann Mathieu who was 60-to-1 and is down to 40-to-1. They also like Antonio Brown to win MVP and he’s dropped from 50-to-1 to 40-to-1, but both QB’s are the top two money attractions to win MVP.”
A QB has won the MVP in 30 of the 55 Super Bowls with Tom Brady winning it a record four times. But two of the last seven MVPs were defensive players Malcolm Smith and Von Miller of the Seahawks and Broncos respectively. Mathieu is lined up all over the field and certainly has a chance to be the star of the game.
“We also saw a run on the Chiefs to score a rushing TD from +200 down to +160,” Sherman said.
“No chance at -2.5” is what sticks with me the most from my conversation with Sherman because I still think the masses will bet Brady and the Bucs as opposed to laying the appearance of a cheap number with the Chiefs.
Update - Friday, Jan. 29, 2021 - 6:15 p.m. ET
by VI Staff
Action remains steady
We're still more than over a week away from Super Bowl 55 and Kansas City remains the top betting choice at PointsBet, a legal US betting shop, and other operators within the United States. As we close in on the game, Super Bowl betting sites will likely offer odds boosts and other incentives to lay down some serious cash on the Chiefs.
Odds & Trends Subject to Change
Along with the betting trends listed above, PointsBet is starting to see a lean for certain players on two popular betting props for Super Bowl 55.
PointsBet - Super Bowl 55 MVP Trends
Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady is receiving 23% of the betting count as of Friday Jan. 29 and that's not surprising since QBs usually win the award.
Other notable choices include playmakers wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce of the Chiefs while Buccaneers linebacker Shaquil Barrett appears to be a live long shot.
PointsBet - Super Bowl 55 Anytime TD Scorer Trends
Kelce is the leader in the clubhouse at 36% of the total bets and it's hard to argue against the pick, despite the chalky price (-164). The tight end has scored in 12 of the 16 games that he's started this season for Kansas Ciy.
Odds & Trends Subject to Change
According to legal US sportsbooks reporting action on the Chiefs and Bucs, the largest Super Bowl 55 wager was placed between Thursday night and Friday morning at BetMGM.
Tampa Bay was the choice and the amount was $2.3 million to win $2 million. Good Luck to you!
$2.3 million on Tampa +3.5... Wow ?? https://t.co/eU4xgg9bPv
— BetMGM ?? (@BetMGM) January 29, 2021Update - Thursday, Jan. 28, 2021 - 2:15 p.m. ET
by Micah Roberts
Super Bowl 55 Props Abound
Super Book Props William Hill Props
The Super Bowl prop frenzy is about to start today with sharp guys already having their own numbers and prices set and they’re waiting, hoping to find an opening number error or the largest disparity.
“It’s been quiet the last two days, but that’s going to change real quick at 2:00 p.m. PT when we release hundreds and hundreds of props,' said William Hill’s director of trading Nick Bogdanovich, arguably the hardest working man in the business. “Adam (Pullen) and I have been working on them the last two days.'
Bogdanovich never takes a day off unless he’s on vacation in California and his top oddsmaker, Pullen, is a numbers whiz kid that has been one of the best at it for 25 years in Las Vegas.
How about some of the unique ones, any cross-sport props?
‘'Yeah, he made a bunch of those cross-sport props with stuff like shots on goal in hockey, goals made in soccer games played that day and all kinds of stuff like that,' he said. “But the most unique one that stands out this year is whether or not a missed field goal hits the crossbar. I think we have the No at -360.'
The handle has been through the roof this season for William Hill books with the addition of taking over all the Caesars Entertainment books on the strip and most of it has come from mobile wagering.
“We’re about 70% with mobile wagering and 30% retail (over-the-counter), and the bump is most likely from the pandemic,' he said. “Before the pandemic, our action was a 50-50 split with retail.'
The ease of betting from phones during the pandemic has taught all bettors, small and large, the best and easiest way to play and I think it’s going to stay that way whenever the pandemic is over.
In-progress play and props during games while at home has been an eye-opening experience for the regular Joe public bettor. It is this aspect that makes it possible for a Nevada Super Bowl handle record ($158 million) to be set despite sportsbooks only allowing 25% of its capacity during these times.
“A record? I doubt it,' Bogdanovich said. “But I’ll tell you what, if a price was offered at plus-money on a record happening I would bet it.'
So he’s saying there’s a chance. I’d make that bet too!
Chiefs maintain steady lead
William Hill books opened the Chiefs -3 -120 and after a brief 20 minutes stint at -3.5 Sunday night they are back where they started, -3 -120. Bogdanovich has seen the same type of early action as most Nevada books have.
“In straight bet action (point-spread), we’re seeing the Chiefs at a 2-to-1 ratio (money), and the Bucs at 1.5-to-1 ratio on the money-line,' he said.
William Hill opened the money-line at -170/+150 and is now at -165/+145.
Their total has dropped from 57 down to 56.5 despite almost every parlay taking the over.
“We’re about 50-50 on straight bets with the total, but on the parlays so far we’ve seen 90% of the bets taking the over,' he said.
SB55 Vegas parties are on, but limited
One last note regarding Super Bowl parties. Just like the Mirage, Bogdanovich said all the properties they have sportsbooks in can’t have more than 50 people at a party.
The pageantry of these big parties across the strip is an awesome vibe to be part of, but how about we just load up an account with our normal Super Bowl betting allowance, stay home to be safe, and bet away on our mobile phones.
Update - Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2021 - 1:00 p.m. ET
by VI Staff
Super Bowl 55 Betting Trends
As we inch closer to the big showdown from Tampa between the Chiefs and Buccaneers, bettors at DraftKings are start to show their hand even though Super Bowl 55 is more than a week away.
According to the betting trends listed above at the operator, bettors are backing Kansas City to win and cover the game, plus they're expecting points in this matchup.
Over 56.5 is the most one-sided wager on Super Bowl 55 at DraftKings as of Jan. 27, 2021, taking both 83% of the betting handle and the bets.
What does that mean?
If DraftKings had $100 bet on the Super Bowl 55 total, then $83 would be on the Over and $17 on the Under.
Same math with the ticket count -- 83 to 17 -- if you're using a sample of 100 tickets.
Right now, the only difference in the Super Bowl 55 splits provided by DraftKings is with money-line wagers.
Kansas City (-167) is receiving 55% of the overall handle but Tampa Bay (+145) has a 56% draw in ticket counts or bets.
That's not surprising with the point-spread being so short and a lot of bettors believe Tampa Bay will either win outright or not lose by 1, 2 or 3 points.
Update - Tuesday, Jan. 26, 2021 - 5:00 p.m. ET
by Micah Roberts
KC Cash shows up first!
If early Super Bowl 55 wagering after three days is any indication, the public loves the Chiefs so far, but 98% of the action in Las Vegas and Nevada is still to come. The most pressing question is what the proper number is.
“I think -3.5 is a better number for us, but each time I’ve moved it there it lasts only 10 minutes before we get a $50,000 bet on it and we go back down to -3,” said South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews. “And we’re getting steady action laying the 3 and it’s adding up, but they’re not betting it with a vengeance.”
The South Point is a great book to watch line movements with because they use only flat numbers.
When they are -3 -110, it’s the only 3-flat offered and the most attractive for Chiefs bettors, and when it’s -3.5 flat, it’s the best number for Bucs bettors.
“We’ve taken 70% of our bets on the Chiefs (-3.5 EVEN) so far,” Atlantis-Reno sports books director Marc Nelson said. “And it’s just a feeling, but I think we’ll see more Chiefs money down the road.”
So you think maybe you’ll get to Chiefs -4?
“I doubt it, but you never know,” Nelson said.
There are many ways to execute a Super Bowl booking strategy, with much of starting with the CEO or owners and how much they’re willing to risk. Don’t shock the big boss with a losing day on Super Bowl come Monday.
“Michael (Gaughan) just said he doesn’t want to know right now, just handle it,” said a chuckling Andrews of the South Point owners' early instructions to him.
This is always the public’s game with their small money dwarfing what the sharp money bets. Most bookmakers book the game on all money combined and map out a plan to return a certain amount of profit, but Nelson does it a little differently.
“I give respect to the wise guy wagers more than the public, and book it that way (even if risk is higher on the other side),” he said. “I’ve always done it that way in the regular season and I do it in the postseason as well, but they haven’t shown their hand yet other than some under (57) money.”
The lowest Nevada total offering as of Tuesday is 56 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Another strategy for the books is to get to the right number as soon as possible, especially in the biggest game of the year when it’s hovering around the most key number of 3.
It’s going to take a surge of Tampa Bay action to see a 2.5 anytime soon and if it happens it’s likely to be next week.
But so far, most bookmakers think the second week will still be mostly Chiefs action so they’re not alarmed by possibly creating a middle opportunity to create the blackest of all Sundays -- if the Chiefs win by exactly 3 points.
What is Black Sunday?
Per - VI Staff
A strategy used in the industry is called a 'middle' where bettors are playing both sides of a game on either the point-spread, total or in some cases the money-line.
The most infamous pro football finale for oddsmakers was Super Bowl XIII and a lesson learned for all individuals standing behind the betting counter, which falls into the 'middle' category.
The 13th Super Bowl installment saw the Steelers open as 4 ½-point favorites over the Cowboys and the number dropped to 3 ½-points with early action on the Cowboys.
Even though Dallas lost the game 35-31 to Pittsburgh, early bettors cashed with the 4 ½-points and Steelers backers won on the closing line.
To this day, SBXIII is considered “Black Sunday” for the sportsbooks.
Books believe number will hold at Chiefs -3 or higher
“I don’t think we’ll see 2.5,” said Andrews,” But we did raise our buys on and off of 3 to -135 from -130.
So for a cost of 25 extra cents you can lay the extra juice for the priciest half-point buy at the South Point.
They have the only 3-flat in the world and they’ll let you buy down, something to think about for Chiefs bettors who lost the Week 12 game at Tampa Bay laying -3.5 in a 27-24 win.
Every other Nevada book is offering either -3 -120 or -3.5 EVEN with BetMGM offering -3.5 -105.
“We’ve had 95% of the big bets come on KC, and overall is leaning to them as well,” said BetMGM VP of trading Jason Scott. “We started at -3.5 (-110), went -3 (-115), but are back to -3.5 (-105).”
Bucs hurt Books Super Bowl Futures Hold
Most books are set to lose on futures if the Bucs win the Super Bowl with odds going from 40/1 down to 14/1 after quarterback Tom Brady signed with Tampa Bay on March 19, but Atlantis-Reno isn’t one of them.
“We do great with futures on the Chiefs to win, but are just a small winner (four-figures) if the Bucs win,” Nelson said. “It’s because of the small win that I have a low price of the money-line with the Chiefs -155.”
Nelson will be adding Super Bowl props throughout the week and have a full sheet package offered on Sunday, a strategy that Circa Sports is following as well.
Circa offering up Unique Square Wagers
Circa Sports unveiled squares for the Super Bowl last season as the local bars do and they brought them back this year as well. It’s fixed odds, bet as many as you like, and the minimum bet is $1.
If the Chiefs have a 9 at the end of their first-quarter score and the Bucs have a 2, Circa will pay you 5,000-to-1 odds.
The favored price is a 0-0 result (10-0,10-10, etc) paying out at 9-to-2 odds.
A 7-0 Chiefs score pays +475, and 7-7 pays +635.
SuperBook Props coming Thursday Night
The world famous SuperBook props are expected to be released Thursday night.
“That’s the plan,” said SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay.
“In-person betting on Thursday night and a Friday release of the sheets and also available on the app. Most likely later on Friday, no time on it yet.”
One of the angles the Nevada books will have to adapt to in pandemic rules, and Nevada Gaming Control will have officers checking all locations throughout the Super Bowl weekend to ensure all are abiding by the 25% occupancy capacity rules for casinos. This has made party planning a tough task.
“We used to get 1,600 people into our VIP Super Bowl party at the Mirage ballroom but now we have four ballrooms with only 50 people allowed in each,” said Nevada’s BetMGM sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback.
There’s every reason to suggest the pandemic will thwart a chance to beat the state record for Super Bowl handle ($158 million), but I’m optimistic it will be broken.
Back for more updates as they happen.
Update - Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021 - 11:30 p.m. ET
by Micah Roberts
Vegas ready for Super Bowl 55
It’s a dreamy Super Bowl 55 matchup featuring Tom Brady against Patrick Mahomes, a matchup that offers a little bit of intrigue for everyone to share opinions which makes for a tremendous betting event.
Moms, Grandma’s, the Priest, and the mailman will all have thoughts on who will win.
We have two weeks to wait for the game, but the talking of who will win began Sunday immediately after Brady beat the Packers at Lambeau Field to make his 10th Super Bowl.
The Buccaneers were 3.5-point underdogs in that game and they’ll be +3.5 against the defending champion Chiefs as well.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Chiefs -3.5 with a total of 57.5 with 45 minutes left in the Chiefs eventual 38-24 win over the Bills.
Circa Sports opened the Chiefs -3 -120 as did William Hill books and both were quickly moved to -3.5. The South Point and MGM both opened -3.5.
“Mahomes against Brady is going to be huge,” Nevada BetMGM’s sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback said.
“Handle has been up all season despite less occupancy so I don’t see why the trend wouldn’t continue for the biggest game of the season. It’s been weird because six-figure wagers are a common thing now. I used to remember them all because that size of a bet was unique, but now that it’s a regular thing, I lose count of how many we took some weeks.”
Mobile wagering with lots of automated options has helped most books achieve bigger numbers this NFL season.
It’s easier than ever for people to bet and bet again in 2021 staying home during a pandemic, so why not set a record to commemorate it.
The Nevada record for Super Bowl sportsbook handle was $158 million in 2018 when the Eagles beat the Patriots and the highest win was $19.67 million in 2014 when the Seahawks thrashed the Broncos, 43-8.
I can tell you this, the soft spot for your Grandma will be 43-year-old Tom Brady, who just played in his 14th conference championship game.
He comes off seven straight wins while scoring 30-points or more in their last six.
He won all three playoff games on the road. They’ve got some serious momentum heading into Tampa.
Yes, the game is on their home field, the first team ever to play a Super Bowl on their home field.
Chiefs get early action
Early money showed up on the Chiefs at -3 -120, but that was more about the number. Or was it?
BetMGM’s Jason Scott said they took $50K on the Chiefs -3.5 and $150K on the Chiefs money-line at -180 shortly after the line was posted.
Or maybe it’s just the “what we saw last” type of betting.
The Chiefs are back covering after going 1-8 ATS in their previous nine games, one of which was a Week 12 game at Tampa Bay they won 27-24 but didn’t cover -3.5. The Bucs have not lost since that meeting.
Super Bowl 55 Adjustments Coming?
Where will the line go, up or down?
William Hill’s Nick Bogdanovich, who is booking his 27th or 29th Super Bowl, says it will stay 3 or 3.5 the entire next two weeks.
Station Casinos sportsbook director is hoping for something different.
“I was praying for two-way action at 3.5 but I expect to see Bucs money take it down,” Jason McCormick said.
And then how long do you stay at 3, the most key number in the NFL, before jumping down to 2.5? The books don’t want to push on 3, but they also don’t want to get middle by going to 2.5.
A 'Black Sunday' happened after the 1978 season with the Steelers and Cowboys in Super Bowl 13. Only a handful of books around in Nevada back then with low limits compared to now. A Black Sunday in 2021 would be devastating.
We’ll see how it all unfolds the next two weeks and I’ll report what I see and thoughts on where the number may be going.
Who Does Vegas Favor To Win The Super Bowl
My advice shortly after the number was posted Sunday is to take the Bucs +3.5 and money-line sooner than later if you like them and if you like the Chiefs wait for -2.5.
Who Does Las Vegas Favor To Win Super Bowl 2020
One thing I’ve noticed in recent Super Bowls is that public opinion completely flips sides from what was bet the first two or three days.
Who Does Las Vegas Favor To Win Super Bowl 2021
Sharp money doesn’t matter as much as the regular season and gets lost in all the public money piling up.